Flipping the Texas Electoral Vote

States of various shadings each house about one-third of the US population. The four states with the dark blue shading have more than half (56%) of the 270 electoral votes a presidential candidate needs to win. Map by the author.

On the map above, each of the three shades of blue shows states that are home to about one-third of the US population. The four states with the dark blue shading — California, Texas Florida and New York — have more than half (56%) of the 270 electoral votes that a presidential candidate needs to win.

In the upcoming 2024 presidential election Texas will have a huge impact on the outcome. Texas will have 40 electoral votes, second only to California’s 54. Both states are huge electoral prizes. (Florida with 30 electoral votes and New York with 28 round out the ‘Big 4.’) Two of these four (Texas and Florida) are considered ‘red,’ and two are ‘blue’ (California and New York). There are 538 electoral votes in total; half is 269, so the winner needs 270 to become President. So these four states have 152 of the 270 electoral votes a presidential candidate needs to win.

I read somewhere that “if the Democrats can turn Texas blue they will have a lock on future presidential elections.” NO it’s not a lock, but YES a switch of the Texas vote from its current status as a red state to a blue state would have flipped several recent elections.

Note that this is a very different outcome from my earlier post about ‘what if Texas left the Union?’ (titled “Let My Texas People Go,” link below). In that scenario taking Texas out of the picture only…